Get the Best Bets for NFL Week 10: Find Value in Props, Picks, and More

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics
Nov 12, 2023, 07:00 AM ET

As a bettor on a Sunday, I tend to avoid full-game spreads and totals, which are already heavily bet into. Instead, I’m drawn to the obscure markets, as that’s where I specialize and have built my statistical models around. This week, let’s take a deep dive into Sunday props and see if we can find an edge in the smaller markets.

Odds provided by ESPN BET.

QB Interceptions
– Lamar Jackson under 0.5 interceptions (-122 at ESPN BET)
Despite facing a tough Browns defense, I believe Jackson is less likely to throw an interception, as the Ravens may lean more into their ground game. Additionally, being the favored team means Jackson will have to take fewer risks, making the under a favorable bet.

Pass Completions
– Will Levis under 19.5 completions (-122)
I anticipate Levis, a rookie quarterback, to struggle to hit the over, as the Titans have been a run-first team and I don’t see that strategy changing. My projection is firmly under the line, predicting just 15.2 completions.

Pass Attempts
– Jared Goff over 33.5 pass attempts (-114)
Goff is likely to take advantage of the Chargers’ defense, which is known to be vulnerable to passing. With a high offensive potential in the game, Goff is projected to make 35.9 pass attempts.

– Chase Young (SF) over 0.5 sacks (+103)
With Young now rushing opposite Nick Bosa on the 49ers defense, he is expected to have ample opportunities to generate sacks. My model places the over at -119.

– Myles Garrett (CLE) over 0.5 sacks (-134)
Despite the line being a little high, Garrett’s exceptional pass rush win rate makes this over a valuable bet, as he is likely to produce sacks in the game.

Tackles + Assists
– Riq Woolen (SEA) over 2.5 tackles + assists (-118)
Woolen, a starting corner, is projected to exceed 2.5 tackles + assists, as he has consistently performed well in this metric. This bet is recommended as a standout option from our article.

Results from Last Week:
– QB interceptions: 2-1 (+1.5 units)
– Pass attempts: 1-1 (-0.0 units)
– D/ST touchdowns: 1-0 (+0.9 units)
– Receptions: 1-0 (+1.2 units)
– Sacks: 2-0 (+1.6 units)
– Tackles: 3-4-1 (-1.3 units)
– Defensive interceptions: 0-2 (-2.0 units)
– Overall: 10-8-1 (+1.8 units)

Season 2023 Results:
– QB interceptions: 9-13 (-2.0 units)
– Pass completions: 1-1 (-0.0 units)
– Pass attempts: 3-5 (-2.6 units)
– Receptions: 1-0 (+1.2 units)
– Sacks: 52-39-1 (+11.7 units)
– Tackles: 38-25-1 (+10.4 units)
– D/ST touchdowns: 2-19 (-3.5 units)
– Defensive interceptions: 0-3 (-3.0 units)
– Teasers: 2-2 (+0.4 units)
– Weekly specials: 0-3 (-3.0 units)
– Game props: 0-2 (-2.0 units)
– Overall: 108-112-2 (+7.6 units)