Expert Analysis: Betting Splits and NFL Sharp Money Picks for Monday Night Football: Broncos vs. Bills

VSiN Daily Morning Bets is a quick 15-minute podcast that is posted at 7 a.m. ET, covering the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a more in-depth breakdown of Monday’s betting action, listeners are encouraged to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET. Listeners can also track the latest odds and betting percentages using the VSiN Betting Splits tool.

The focus then turns to Monday Night Football, where the Denver Broncos will be facing off against the Buffalo Bills at 8:15 p.m. ET. The Bills are currently favored by 7 points with a total over/under of 47.5. The Broncos have won two straight games and recently upset the Chiefs, while the Bills have been inconsistent in their recent performances.

Despite 75% of bets being placed on Buffalo, the line has moved from -9 to -7, indicating that sharp bettors are backing the Broncos. Denver is receiving only 25% of bets but 34% of the money, suggesting a contrarian play with higher dollars on the underdog. Additionally, Denver has the rest advantage, coming off a bye week, while the Bills played on Sunday night.

The total has seen a slight increase from the opening number, but 79% of bets and 79% of money are on the under. With the strong trend of unders hitting this season, especially in primetime games, and the added value on the inflated line, the under seems to be the play for this matchup.

The game conditions also favor the under, with the forecast calling for cloudy skies, mid-40s temperatures, and 8-10 MPH winds. In addition, the lead referee for the game, Bill Vinovich, has historically favored unders and road teams.

For a player prop, bettors might want to consider Broncos RB Javonte Williams under 16.5 receiving yards, as he has gone under this number in 6 of his last 7 games.