The Week 10 slate kicks off with a game between the Indianapolis Colts and the New England Patriots in Germany. The Colts are currently favored by 1.5 points with the total set at 43.5 points according to NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
When comparing the expected point differentials, the Colts clearly rank better than the Patriots, with the Colts sitting at 18th overall and the Patriots at 31st. The Colts also have a better offense, ranking 17th versus the Patriots’ 31st, as well as a better defense, ranking 15th compared to the Patriots’ 23rd.
With these clear edges, numberFire’s models show confidence in the Colts’ moneyline, giving them a 63.4% winning probability. This is a 7.6% edge between the Colts’ current 55.7% implied percentage and numberFire’s expected mark.
In terms of prop bets, there are several options to consider. For the Colts, Demario Douglas over 3.5 receptions seems like a good bet, especially considering he had a team-high seven targets last week and is facing a Patriots’ team that allows 12.1 receptions per game to receivers.
On the other side, Rhamondre Stevenson under 12.5 rushing attempts could be a solid bet, given his recent struggles to consistently hit that mark and the likelihood of a negative game script working against his potential rushing volume.
When looking at DFS picks, there are several attractive options. Jonathan Taylor and Gardner Minshew of the Colts, as well as Michael Pittman Jr. and Rhamondre Stevenson, offer opportunities for solid fantasy production based on their matchups and recent performances.
For the Patriots, Demario Douglas, Matt Gay, Hunter Henry, Ezekiel Elliott, and JuJu Smith-Schuster all present interesting flex options, each with their own potential for fantasy value based on their projected performance and matchups.
As always, it’s important to make informed choices based on your own analysis and research when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers. While these suggestions can provide valuable insights, there are no guarantees in sports betting or fantasy sports.